Holy avocado dip, it is now thirteen days until Election Day! Two weeks ago, our one monthish outlook showed advantage still Harris, but signs of a significantly tightening race. Where are we now with less than two weeks to go and early voting underway in 39 states?
Harris maintains a lead in both the Real Clear Politics and 538 national polling averages, though down in both compared to a week ago. In both cases her lead is within the margin of error, but the more solidly founded 538 average shows an unmistakable lead is being maintained:
That narrowing margin is significant though, because there’s a point- somewhere in the neighborhood of 2% to 3%- where a Democratic national lead doesn’t necessarily translate into an Electoral College lead anymore because of state by state dynamics and the misproportioned nature of how that system works. On the swing state front, RCP now shows Trump leading all 7 states. 538 has a more robust methodology of weighting polls according to history of pollster accuracy and partisan lean, and it shows a slightly better picture for Harris, but a similar dynamic.
Trump has improved vs. Harris in every state except North Carolina compared to two weeks ago, including pulling into a narrow lead in Pennsylvania, such that he is now ahead in 4 of 7. Another major takeaway from the chart is that none of the leads for either candidate is outside the margin of error, and in 5 of 7 states they’re separated by less than 1%:
So what does that add up to? RCP has Trump sweeping the Electoral College:
Using the 538 state polls it’s closer, but Trump still tops 270 with room to spare:
As was noted two weeks ago, though, with all seven swing states within a margin of error, and five of them separated by less than 1%, it would be perfectly plausible to see either Harris or Trump win all seven. The main thing that’s true is that it’s very, very close.
Approval ratings, which are another kind of stand in for preference, still show an edge for Harris, but she’s swung back into net negative territory, and Trump has trended up a bit compared to last time:
Democrats still retain their lead in the Generic Congressional ballot, and are up just a smidge from two weeks ago:
A significant indication of overall strength for Democrats remains that, through 100 special elections over the past two years, the party has outperformed by an average of 6% against the partisan lean of the races in question (per a spreadsheet compiled by Nathaniel Rakich of 538):
There’s no change in this indicator, but it remains true that Biden’s percentage in Democratic primaries was ahead of Trump’s in Republican primaries, indicating that Republicans had comparatively more wavering partisan supporters to bring home for their nominee:
The betting markets, meanwhile, are now going for Trump in a big way, predicting a more than 60% chance of him winning the election:
Taking all this together, the two main things that stand out compared to two weeks ago are that there’s been movement toward Trump, and everything is converging on being very, very close. And indeed, that’s where our forecast models are coming out. Witness 538:
538’s now solo founder Nate Silver has his model behind a paywall, but does give periodic updates on what it’s saying:
So, as was true two weeks ago, two of the best forecast models out there have the election basically down to a coin toss. Circling back for a second to 538’s state averages:
If we do a map that leaves blank the five states that are within 1%, there are four different ways Harris could get there, and seven ways Trump could, any of which might happen by not more than a few thousand votes:
We’ll check in again next week at a week to go to see if things are any clearer. Until then, our indicators are:
Tuesday this week was exactly 28 days (aka four weeks) until Election Day! When we did our two month outlook, things seemed to have turned sharply toward Harris. Since that post we’ve had the first (and apparently, only) debate between the two candidates, the Vice Presidential debate, a second assassination attempt, and bullish economic signs galore while the conflict in the Middle East meanwhile expands. And, significantly, the election is underway- 18 states are already doing early voting and/or have mailed out ballots. In the midst of all this, what are the numbers showing?
Harris maintains a lead in both the Real Clear Politics and 538 national polling averages, widening it a little in RCP, and narrowing it a little in 538, with total undecided down in each. In both cases her lead is within the margin of error, but the impression of Harris maintaining a lead is clear:
Ah, but the election isn’t decided nationally, is it? At this moment only seven states are seriously in doubt, and what happens in these states is what it will all come down to. RCP now shows Harris leading in 2 of 7, and 538 with its more robust methodology has her ahead in 4 of 7. This chart overwhelmingly gives an impression of tightening. One state flipped form Harris to Trump since last time, one flipped from Trump to Harris, and 6 of 7 have a margin of less than 1%:
So what does that add up to? RCP currently has Trump winning the electoral vote in its “no toss-ups” map:
As mentioned above, 538 uses a more robust methodology for its averages (they weight things according to pollster track record and history of partisan lean) and their current polling averages would give Harris a narrow win:
The important thing to keep in mind here is that, with all seven swing states within a margin of error, and six of them separated by less than 1%, the most substantive thing we can say is that it’s very close. While a mixed result is most likely, based on these polls it wouldn’t be ridiculous to see Harris or Trump win all seven.
So what else can we look at? The approval ratings comparison is another stand in for preference, and it shows a clear edge for Harris. She has swung into positive territory, while Trump remains more than nine points net negative:
Democrats also retain their lead in the Generic Congressional ballot, though by less than a month ago:
And, through 100 special elections over the past two years, Democrats have outperformed by an average of 6% against the partisan lean of the races in question (per a spreadsheet compiled by Nathaniel Rakich of 538):
There’s no change in this indicator, but it remains true that Biden’s percentage in Democratic primaries was ahead of Trump’s in Republican primaries, indicating that Trump had comparatively more wavering partisan supporters to bring home:
The betting markets, meanwhile, have doubled down on the edge they gave Trump last month (see what I did there?), predicting a 53% chance of him winning the election:
Taking everything together, Harris retains an overall edge in the leading indicators, but tightening of the race since a month ago is readily apparent. That’s where 538’s forecast model comes out, giving Harris an edge, but not a huge one:
538’s founder Nate Silver left 538 in May 2023 as Disney/ABC was making huge layoffs there and struck out on his own. He took the proprietary code for 538’s original model with him, and has built a new model based on it. It’s behind a paywall, but he issues periodic updates and his latest comes out nearly exactly where his former colleagues are:
So, the best models out there have the election pretty close to being a coin toss. And let us now pause to remember that the 2016 election came down to 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and the 2020 election came down to 42,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Clinton lost 2016 despite winning the vote by +2.2%, and Biden barely won 2020 while winning the vote by +4.5%. This is probably going to be a long election night/week…
We’ll check in again week after next with two weeks to go! Until then, our indicators are:
Last year was the 50th anniversary of hip hop, and in honor of this anniversary, the idea bloomed in my mind that I should review the top 50 albums of that 50 years. As I crunched together a list from various sources, 50 proved to be too restrictive- many of the classics were getting squeezed out. So, to make a little more room, I opted for 100 albums, two for each of hip hop’s 50 years.
For its formative years, hip hop was a live entertainment form, with the first recorded singles not emerging until 1979, and the first albums in 1980. So my review will cover 1980-2023, with 50 posts of two albums each. The only ground rule I made for myself (besides looking for 2×50, aka 100, albums that were widely well-regarded) was that I had to have at least one from each year. As you’ll see by and by, some years get multiple albums, but since we have 100 spots for 43 years, it tends to all work out.
*June 2024 addendum: Due to some medical situations, I took a three+ month hiatus from blogging. It’s unlikely I’ll finish this series this year. But I’m back at it, and I won’t mind extending into 2025 if you don’t!*
And with that, let’s embark on our next installment!
Geto Boys, Grip It! On That Other Level(1989)– My initial impression is that this album sounds like somebody put N.W.A., Public Enemy, and the 2 Live Crew in a blender. And I don’t mean that in a bad way! The best of all those groups is here- the driving force, g-funk groove, uncompromising politics, street narratives, and over the top raunchy sexuality. Another thing that’s notable is that this Houston group is the first Southern hip hop to make our list, and indeed one can already hear the distinctive dirty beats of the region. The sampling is varied and great as well, with soul, funk and 70s rock all being well-represented. One does get the sense that the different approaches here are fronted by different members though, and there’s a kind of incoherence of the sound as a result. On further research, this impression turns out to be correct- the CEO of Rap-a-Lot records was disappointed with the group’s debut album, and dismissed several members, while adding two local artists with solo aspirations (Scarface and Willie D) to the roster for their second album. I also found the extreme misogyny and graphic violence of some of the songs really hard to stomach. Sometimes it’s clearly tongue in cheek, but sometimes not so much. Nevertheless, the album/group influenced many future hip hop artists, and is often credited as the origin of the horrorcore sub-genre.
Kool G Rap & DJ Polo, Road To The Riches (1989)- This Queens duo got their start as part of Marley Marl’s Juice Crew, and he produced this debut album by them as well. The opening track already features several of the notable features of this album- peak eighties heavy beats and scratching, swinging background samples, and rapid-fire delivery of its tales of crime and big success. While still feeling very much of the eighties, the album seems to anticipate the directions, musically and lyrically, that rap would take in the nineties. And indeed that is the reputation that landed it on this list. The opening track “Road to the Riches” is considered an influence on nineties gangster rap while another track “Men At Work” has been cited by the Roots as the track that got them started, and the album’s track “Poison” even got sampled by Bel Biv Devoe, which gives you some idea of the range on influence. I found it to be a solid listen that still holds up as a signpost of one era about to turn to another.
If you’re curious about the sources I used to compile my list, you can check them out here:
Finally, if you’d like a playlist for the entire list, you can find that here. Listen to it sequentially for the historical development of the genre, or play on shuffle for maximum historical scramble!
Last year was the 50th anniversary of hip hop, and in honor of this anniversary, the idea bloomed in my mind that I should review the top 50 albums of that 50 years. As I crunched together a list from various sources, 50 proved to be too restrictive- many of the classics were getting squeezed out. So, to make a little more room, I opted for 100 albums, two for each of hip hop’s 50 years.
For its formative years, hip hop was a live entertainment form, with the first recorded singles not emerging until 1979, and the first albums in 1980. So my review will cover 1980-2023, with 50 posts of two albums each. The only ground rule I made for myself (besides looking for 2×50, aka 100, albums that were widely well-regarded) was that I had to have at least one from each year. As you’ll see by and by, some years get multiple albums, but since we have 100 spots for 43 years, it tends to all work out.
*June 2024 addendum: Due to some medical situations, I took a three+ month hiatus from blogging. It’s unlikely I’ll finish this series this year. But I’m back at it, and I won’t mind extending into 2025 if you don’t!*
And with that, let’s embark on our next installment!
De La Soul, 3 Feet High and Rising(1989)– Boogie Down Productions and Jungle Brothers may have gotten there first, but this album is the beginning of conscious hip hop as a recognized genre. It sounded different from everything else out there at the time, and it still does today with it’s sunny and widely varied samples, psychedelic production effects, relaxed beats and flow, and overflowing themes of whimsy, anti-materialism, and counter-cultural self expression. It even has a classic psychedelic concept album wrap around theme with the game show skit structure (and began the trend of comedic skits between tracks in hip hop). It would be enough if this Long Island group and producer Prince Paul had “merely” produced a ground-breaking album regarded as hip-hop’s psychedelic masterpiece. But even better, it remains a thoroughly joyous, rewarding, and in a way timeless, listen today.
EPMD, Unfinished Business (1989)- The follow-up to the Long Island duo’s 1988 Strictly Business reminds me of their earlier album with its funk and rock samples, driving flow, and spare metallic sound. The stripped down feel is likely no accident- whereas their debut album was produced by electro-funk driving-force Kurtis Mantronik, the group self-produced this second album. If this makes it a little rougher and more slap-dash feeling than their last album, I think I actually like it better for that!
If you’re curious about the sources I used to compile my list, you can check them out here:
Finally, if you’d like a playlist for the entire list, you can find that here. Listen to it sequentially for the historical development of the genre, or play on shuffle for maximum historical scramble!
Last year was the 50th anniversary of hip hop, and in honor of this anniversary, the idea bloomed in my mind that I should review the top 50 albums of that 50 years. As I crunched together a list from various sources, 50 proved to be too restrictive- many of the classics were getting squeezed out. So, to make a little more room, I opted for 100 albums, two for each of hip hop’s 50 years.
For its formative years, hip hop was a live entertainment form, with the first recorded singles not emerging until 1979, and the first albums in 1980. So my review will cover 1980-2023, with 50 posts of two albums each. The only ground rule I made for myself (besides looking for 2×50, aka 100, albums that were widely well-regarded) was that I had to have at least one from each year. As you’ll see by and by, some years get multiple albums, but since we have 100 spots for 43 years, it tends to all work out.
*June 2024 addendum: Due to some medical situations, I took a three+ month hiatus from blogging. It’s unlikely I’ll finish this series this year. But I’m back at it, and I won’t mind extending into 2025 if you don’t!*
And with that, let’s embark on our next installment!
Beastie Boys, Paul’s Boutique (1989)– There were two obvious paths open to the Beastie Boys for their sophomore album- make essentially the same kind of album as Licensed to Ill (safe and commercial goldmine) or revert to their roots and record something in a more punk vein (a departure, but one in their comfort zone). They picked a third option. Their desire to do something more serious and complex to shake their reputation as a joke act, joined with the densely layered sampling techniques of producers the Chemical Bros, resulted in a dizzying kaleidoscope of an album. Over 100 songs were sampled, with sources as diverse as the Beatles, Bob Dylan, Johnny Cash, jazz, soul, and funk. The Boys added to this dynamic mix their signature three-part flow, and lyrics that augmented the beer-soaked braggadocio of their debut with more fantastical and surreal stories. It all adds up to a kind of hip hop psychedelic masterpiece. On a purely personal level, I recall being dismayed by this album as a teen, and not getting it. The commercial reaction of the time agreed with me, but the album’s critical reception and regard in the hip hop community were high at the time and have loomed larger over time. Which an older and perhaps wiser me agrees with!
Big Daddy Kane, It’s a Big Daddy Thing (1989)- For his sophomore album (apparently our theme for this post) Big Daddy Kane stepped in and joined his original producer Marley Marl to do much of the production himself. The product is bright and smooth, and I can certainly understand why it was popular. While I appreciate the positivity of the album, it feels rather pop bland to me. I had a similarly lukewarm response to his first album Long Live the Kane a few reviews back, so maybe Big Daddy Kane just isn’t my cup of tea. Sorry Kane!
If you’re curious about the sources I used to compile my list, you can check them out here:
Finally, if you’d like a playlist for the entire list, you can find that here. Listen to it sequentially for the historical development of the genre, or play on shuffle for maximum historical scramble!
This past Thursday marked just two months until Election Day! When we last checked in about a month ago, the dramatic switch from Biden to Harris had seemingly shaken up the race, and strengthened the Democratic Party’s position. Since then, we’ve had Harris officially become the nominee, her popular and meme-inspiring choice of Tim Walz as her running mate, and the Democratic convention. We’ve even had enough time for the effect of the convention to fade and normalize a bit, and Robert Kennedy Jr. abandoning his third party bid and endorsing Trump for good measure. So, given all of this, how are things looking?
To start with, Harris has maintained her lead in both the Real Clear Politics and 538 national polling averages, and in fact widened it in both versus a month ago. The more robust of the two, 538 (which weights things according to pollster track record and history of partisan lean, and adjusts for state polling), has a Harris margin just a smidge outside the typical margin of error of around 3%, so it’s close, but the momentum for Harris is clear in each average:
Polls of the swing states are showing a similar momentum toward Harris*. RCP now shows Harris leading in 4 of 7 with another one even, and 538 with its more robust methodology has her ahead in 5 of 7. It’s important to note that all of these leads in either direction are within the margin of error. And, per the * above, Harris now has leads in more states than a month ago, but also has seen some tightening in two of her leads versus a month ago. All in all this is a picture of a very close race, but the overall movement is toward Harris:
As you might expect from the state trends, the electoral vote outlook for Harris has improved over a month ago, and even the more Republican-tilted RCP map shows the Democrats ahead for the first time since we started tracking in May. Again it’s a narrow margin, a flip of any single swing state here could put Harris behind (or, if it’s a Trump state, give her a stronger lead):
The approval ratings comparison is now much clearer than a month ago as well. Harris has basically pulled even in net approval, whereas Trump’s negative numbers have widened somewhat, and are now approaching 10%. Once again, advantage Harris:
Democrats are also recording their largest lead this year in the Generic Congressional ballot:
And, while there haven’t been new data points on this since a month ago, in nearly 100 recent special elections through the end of July, Democrats have outperformed by an average of 6% against the partisan lean of the races in question (per a spreadsheet compiled by Nathaniel Rakich of 538):
Again, no change in this, but it remains true that Biden’s percentage in Democratic primaries was ahead of Trump’s in Republican primaries, indicating that Trump had more wavering partisan supporters to bring home than Biden:
In the one contra-indicator since last time, Trump has now re-taken a small lead against Harris in Presidential betting markets:
Putting all this together, Harris is even more clearly outperforming Trump at this point than she was a month ago. Not only is almost all the motion over the past month toward her, but with Kennedy out and the conventions concluded, the undecideds are now down to about 8.5%, meaning there are fewer folks out there to sort out.
At the same time, it’s difficult to miss that the numbers indicate a close race. It is now time for our standard disclaimer that the 2016 election came down to 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and the 2020 election came down to 42,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Even if we take on face value 538’s 3% national lead for Harris, that’s right in the middle of Clinton’s 2016 +2.2% and Biden’s 2020 +4.5%, and both of those were squeakers on the electoral college front.
Still and all, there’s no mistaking the movement toward Harris over a month ago:
We’ll check in again in October, at which point we’ll have another debate or two behind us, and one month to go!
Last year was the 50th anniversary of hip hop, and in honor of this anniversary, the idea bloomed in my mind that I should review the top 50 albums of that 50 years. As I crunched together a list from various sources, 50 proved to be too restrictive- many of the classics were getting squeezed out. So, to make a little more room, I opted for 100 albums, two for each of hip hop’s 50 years.
For its formative years, hip hop was a live entertainment form, with the first recorded singles not emerging until 1979, and the first albums in 1980. So my review will cover 1980-2023, with 50 posts of two albums each. The only ground rule I made for myself (besides looking for 2×50, aka 100, albums that were widely well-regarded) was that I had to have at least one from each year. As you’ll see by and by, some years get multiple albums, but since we have 100 spots for 43 years, it tends to all work out.
*June 2024 addendum: Due to some medical situations, I took a three+ month hiatus from blogging. It’s unlikely I’ll finish this series this year. But I’m back at it, and I won’t mind extending into 2025 if you don’t!*
And with that, let’s embark on our next installment!
Slick Rick, The Great Adventures of Slick Rick (1988)– The influence of Slick Rick in general, and this particular album, are undeniable. Born in the U.K. and raised in the Bronx, Slick Rick rose to fame for his work with Doug E. Fresh before going solo as the third artist signed to Def Jam. He’s renowned for his story-telling chops, which are on display here, and for his unique voice (which carries the UK influence). Somewhere between these factors he’s been sampled well over a thousand times by other hip hop artists, and artists as diverse from each other as Busta Rhymes, Kool Moe Dee, and Nas have cited this album as a favorite. Listening to it, I can get on board with that- it is vintage hip hop in the Def Jam style of the era, and swings with the swagger and ego of the best MCs while also deflating the tropes of the scene with Slick Rick’s humor.
Ultramagnetic MCs, Critical Beatdown (1988)- You may have noticed that this album is our ninth entry in the series from 1988. That’s no accident, that was a peak year in innovation from hip hop’s golden age, and many of the albums issued that year have influenced everything that came after. Critical Beatdown is no exception. The production work of member Ced-Gee, already a great under-recognized contributor to the sounds of Boogie Down Productions and Eric B. & Rakim, included an unusual range of samples and innovative sampling re-arrangement techniques that immediately influenced Public Enemy and gangsta rap, and have continued to echo down since then. Beyond the sonic joy, the rapid flow of the vocals and sometimes surreal lyrics really caught my attention as well. I can see why this got on so many lists!
If you’re curious about the sources I used to compile my list, you can check them out here:
Finally, if you’d like a playlist for the entire list, you can find that here. Listen to it sequentially for the historical development of the genre, or play on shuffle for maximum historical scramble!
This is the true story of someone who set out in 2021 to catch up on newer music. They listened to the critics choices for the best albums of the 2010s, and picked their favorites. They did the same for 2020, picking their top 20 from the critics most highly rated albums. And they listened to new releases monthly in 2021, eventually picking the 21 best albums of 2021. That was so much fun they decided to do it again in 2022 and 2023, listening each month and picking out the 22 best albums of 2022 and the 23 best albums of 2023. That someone is me!
There are links to the albums in the posts cited above, but if you’d like a one-stop playlist, I’ve got that set up in Spotify for the 2021 top 21 and the 2022 top 22, and in YouTube Music for the 23 Best Albums of 2023. (Eventually I’ll move the 2021 and 2022 lists to YouTube, because artists are asking us to avoid Spotify for very good reasons.)
Okay, so now you know the story Well guess what? It’s still going on! Here are the previous editions of the 2024 monthly review if you missed them:
A quick word on the “yes” and “maybe” categories I’ve sorted things into, before we get going with the latest:
Yes– This isn’t a guarantee, but it represents the albums that, upon first listen, I think could definitely be in the running for best of the year.
Maybe– These albums have something to recommend them, but also something that gives me pause. I’m putting them in their own category, because I have found “maybes” sometimes linger and eventually become “yeses”.
Now let’s get on with my top picks from 91 new releases that I listened to from April!
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Anders Osborne, Picasso’s Villa– I was inclined by the Scandinavian first name and the album title to expect something arty and abstruse. What we actually have here is an album with elements of alt country, heartland rock, and guitar squelching southern rock, with great hooks and sharp storytelling lyrics. And in fact, Anders Osborne is a Swedish blues singer and guitarist who move to New Orleans in the ’90s. The move must have been pretty successful, because he sounds like the real deal here!
Bad Bad Hats, Bad Bad Hats– High energy, redolent of new wave and power pop, but still sounding very fresh. Lead singer Kerry Alexander also often gets soulful crooning in along the way, and suitable lyrical snark, as befits her avowed love of the Breeders. This album from a Minneapolis trio is pleasing from start to finish.
Caleb Landry Jones, Hey Gary, Hey Dawn– This is really something! I started off getting strong grunge vibes, then it reminded me heavily of seventies Bowie, and along the way had Beatlesque moments of psychedelia. Texas native, actor, and musician Caleb Landry Jones has apparently been releasing this kind of music since 2020, and I’m happy to finally make his acquaintance!
Cuffed Up, All You Got– Some crunching garage rock, with just the right touch of sleazy boredom. This Los Angeles post-punk trio’s debut is a testament to their years of striving to break through, and a promise of things to come.
English Teacher, This Could Be Texas– There’s others treading this spare, post-punk yet classical, lyrically literate, vocally stripped-down UK path (think Yard Act, tuneyards, anything with yard in it). But darned if this Leeds four-piece band fronted by the hypnotic while understated Lily Fontaine it isn’t affecting!
Eris Drew, Raving Disco Breaks, Vol II– The title “Raving” gives you a clue that this is a kind of late nineties throwback. It also happens to be a dynamic propulsive DJ set with fantastic energy and interesting musical references- 80s hip-hop, nineties dance music, and classic rock including Led Zeppelin and Janis Joplin all make it into the mix. DJ/Producer Drew was on my honorable mention list for Quivering in Time in 2021, and this definitely makes it on my preliminary list for this year.
Gangrene, Heads I Win, Tails You Lose– On their fourth collaborative album, rapper-producers Oh No and the Alchemist have created a stark mix, full of the dynamism of their dueling flow, great and varied sampling including aspects of the last 25 years of hip-hop, and a general feeling of import to both the light and heavy moments.
Ian Hunter, Defiance, Pt 2: Fiction– Classic rock still sometimes makes contemporary albums. And those albums are often quite good! That is certainly the case here, with former Mott the Hoople frontman Ian Hunter. Technically, he bridges both classic rock and proto-punk (or at least glam), and that’s richly on display here, with co-contributors from all over the map- Brian May, the members of Cheap Trick, Jeff Beck, members of the Foo Fighters and Stone Temple Pilots, Lucinda Williams and others all show up to help Hunter do a fine rocking romp.
Judith Hill, Letters From a Black Widow– Trading on her not so flattering nickname from having worked with Prince and Michael Jackson just before their deaths, Judith Hill comes in with a powerful album that shows why everyone wanted to work with her. She rocks, she sings the blues, she gets funky, she does straight-up R&B, she pulls out the tricks of electronic dance music. Sometimes all on the same track! Her album Baby I’m Hollywood was on my list for 2021, and I think she may do it again!
Loren Kramar, Glovemaker– He’s a slut for his dreams! So the Southern California native Loren Kramar himself says in a song from his debut album. This album lives in the realms of cinematic soundtracks, theater music, torch songs, and power ballads, and it does so spectacularly. Musically hitting on track after track and powered lyrically by a wicked wit.
LustSickPuppy, Carousel From Hell– Absolutely blistering electronic hyperpop. At times impossibly sweet, at times grating, at times just overwhelming in the number of things its simultaneously tossing out. Omasyn Hayes, also known professionally as LustSickPuppy, is an American rapper, painter, make-up artist, and model and here takes us to a realm where glitchy distorted EDM, hip hop, and noise rock are one and the same.
Lynks, Abomination– This is great! On one level, an EDM album full of contemporary production tricks, but also nods to low-bit video-game sounds of the 90s and 80s synth pop. There’s the cleverness of arrangement, but what really puts it over the top are the approachable vocals and snark-filled lyrics that explore multiple aspects of the UK gay male experience.
Maggie Rogers, Don’t Forget Me– Smart lyrics and impeccable vocals that know how to work with propulsive music. She brings together strains of 90s female singer songwriter, storytelling country, and some folktronic production. Maryland native Rogers is deservedly getting widespread acclaim.
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department– Say what you want, girl can write and deliver a song! In all senses of that- musical composition, intelligent lyrics, sure vocal phrasing. There’s nothing here that’s less than flawless contemporary pop, technically. And smart, and I don’t fault women for talking about their emotional lives or call them self-indulgent for doing what every singer-songwriter in the seventies did, so I have no complaints. Though I did sneak off after her closing song “Clara Bow” to listen to the entirely different 50 Foot Wave song “Clara Bow”.
The Pernice Brothers, Who Will You Believe– Per AMG, the Pernice Brothers is an, “… outlet for acclaimed indie misanthrope Joe Pernice, whose music ranges from hushed to orchestrated pop.” And indeed, there is a bitter edge to the songs here, but also weary wistfulness and wisdom. Joe Pernice has been doing this since the late nineties, and apparently wisdom does come with age! So too does a fine burnishing of production touches that bring to mind seventies singer-songwriters and AM radio. Musically, it’s like flowing gold, with a dark emotional core.
The Reds, Pinks & Purples, Unwishing Well– The fuzzy echoing guitars, melancholy nostalgia, and world-weary vocals and lyrics do not fail. This is maybe the fourth Reds, Pinks and Purples album I’ve listened to too since I started this a few years ago, and they always get under my skin.
Maybe
Blue Bendy, So Medieval– The sprightliness of Magnetic Fields, the wordy poetic jerkiness of Modern Lovers, off kilter experimental arrangements which bring in the electronic and the psychedelic. I’m not entirely sure what this London band is up to, but it is intriguing!
BMX Bandits, Dreamers on the Run– Twee lives with these founders of the anorak movement. It even reminds me at times of dancehall music and the sillier side of the Beatles. It may be a little too sweet to take sometimes, but it is compelling.
Cloud Nothings, Final Summer– Many of the same charms of their release The Shadow I Remember which was on my honorable mention list for 2021: “Crunchy feedbacky rock with dreamy choral background, lyrical and vocal power, great way with melody-It’s really pretty delightful”? I agree with myself, again!
Drahla, angeltape– Jerky rhythms, grating edges, and something like a hardcore art approach, given just enough accessibility by lead singer Lucile Brown’s arch vocals. I wonder if it’s a little too grating for repeated listening, but this Leeds band is definitely up to something interesting!
Gesaffelstein, GAMMA– Now this is a great DJ mix! Dark and decadent in that European way, driving and serrated, but dynamic and energetic. At times it sounds very contemporary, at other times redolent of nineties techno, which I appreciate. I’m not sure if it has enough musical or thematic through line to totally succeed as an album, but I appreciate what this 39-year-old French DJ is doing.
Jane Weaver, Love In Constant Spectacle– an explorer of krautrock and modern psychedelia, interspersed with deft, arty touches of synth pop. A spare European electronica, ghostly vocals, synth pop, and occasionally blistering fuzzed out guitar. It sometimes feels like it’s going to lull out, but overall, it adds up to something that compels when listening, and stays with you after.
Louisa Stancioff, When We Were Looking– Her beautiful ethereal voice and an acoustic setting that is spare and yet uplifting power something that is somehow happy and sad at the same time. It may be a little narrow in musical and vocal tone, but with literate lyrics to add to the musical and vocal palette, Maine native Louisa Stancioff has produced an arresting debut album.
Old 97’s, American Primitive– Muscular chords and fuzzy guitar power this mix of country-influenced heartland rock. It’s got hooks, a way with melody, and an anthemic feeling. It got a little wobbly at the end by veering hard back into their more usual country and ending in a Spanish-themed instrumental, which were both out of tune with the main body, but there’s not a bad song in the mix.
Parsnip, Behold– A rocking off kilter girl group with wacky sonic flourishes is always going to be near and dear to my heart. In the case of this Australian quartet, they have a solid base of stripped-down pop punk (think early Go-Gos), sixties pop, and hints of indie electronic and psychedelic garage rock. It’s not the most original thing ever, but it’s fun, surprising, and it moves!
Sinkane, We Belong– Ahmed Gallab, the Sudanese-born, New York-based multi-instrumentalist behind Sinkane. The music here effortlessly mixes so many varieties of Black music- 80s R&B, afrobeat, disco, electro. It sounds a little too smoothly produced for my taste, but every track is buoyant musically and lyrically explores the pain and celebration of being Black in the global diaspora.
Spooner Oldham/Texas, The Muscle Shoals Sessions– What do you get when you put together a great Scottish pop band, a storied southern rock keyboardist, the venerable Muscle Shoals recording studio, and smartly chosen covers? Just about the best set of blue-eyed soul one could ask for! It’s not breaking new ground, but it is solidly well done.
T Bone Burnett, The Other Side– The tone is relaxed, the musical accompaniment restrained (despite a top-flight tier of guest musicians). But that’s just what this past master wanted for his first new album in 16 years. And if it feels a little low-key as a result, his songwriting, as always, is exquisite.
The Libertines, All Quiet on the Eastern Esplanade– Starts with a high energy hand-clappy piece redolent of the poppier side of UK original punk and alt eighties, and it stays in that mode. The music is maximum fun, and the lyrics are wordy and literate. The Libertines, of course, have been playing in this realm throughout the millennium. But, if it feels in a sense formulaic, it’s good clean fun the whole way though.
The Sunburned Hand of the Man, Nimbus– It opens with a trippy spoken word straight from the early seventies, and then follows up with instrumental and vocal-led pieces that are also joyously retro while the spoken word gets trippier and edgier, and more experimental music edges in. It turns out this Boston-based collective has been doing exploring the edges since the nineties. It’s weird and doesn’t entirely fir together, but that is kind of the point!
The Zutons, The Big Decider– Their album Who Killed the Zutons was one of my favorites of the 00s and I haven’t heard from them for a while, so I was curious. It turns out they still have a knack for hooky indie rock that sounds sincere but also hits the right pop notes. Not out of the park, but very solid. Well done lads!
X Ambassadors, Townie– Coming from an indie rock kind of place, but informed equally by EDM and heartland rock. The tone is uneven, but this Brooklyn band returns to their upstate New York roots here, and their heartfelt tales of hardscrabble small-town life resonate and ring true.
And there we are, April out sever days before the end of August, The catch-up continues!
Last year was the 50th anniversary of hip hop, and in honor of this anniversary, the idea bloomed in my mind that I should review the top 50 albums of that 50 years. As I crunched together a list from various sources, 50 proved to be too restrictive- many of the classics were getting squeezed out. So, to make a little more room, I opted for 100 albums, two for each of hip hop’s 50 years.
For its formative years, hip hop was a live entertainment form, with the first recorded songs not emerging until 1979, and the first albums in 1980. So my review will cover 1980-2023, with 50 posts of two albums each. The only ground rule I made for myself (besides looking for 2×50, aka 100, albums that were widely well-regarded) was that I had to have at least one from each year. As you’ll see by and by, some years get multiple albums, but since we have 100 spots for 43 years, it tends to all work out.
*June 2024 addendum: Due to some medical situations, I took a three+ month hiatus from blogging. It’s unlikely I’ll finish this series this year. But I’m back at it, and I won’t mind extending into 2025 if you don’t!*
And with that, let’s embark on our next installment!
N.W.A, Straight Outta Compton (1988)– With this installment, we’re a quarter of the way through with the review, and both entries here are all kind of momentous. Though there were earlier examples (like Boogie Down Productions first album) this album is without a doubt the cornerstone of gangsta rap, and the beginnings of real influence for the L.A. rap scene. It’s also a new high point for furiously political hip hop. And a messy contradiction- the album criticizes the system, but also revels in the violence on the street, is full of messages of uplifiting pride, and also truly awful misogyny. But the mess is never inauthentic, backing up the group’s contention that they were doing “reality rap”. Other things that stand out to me listening to it now are the often surprising lightness and humor of the mix and lyrics, the early rumblings of the g-funk style of Dr. Dre, and also an appreciation for how great a producer Eazy-E was despite Dre’s subsequent ascendance. Every which way, the influence of this album looms large, even more remarkably given that it was recorded in six weeks for just $12 thousand.
Public Enemy, It Takes a Nation of Millions to Hold Us Back (1988)- If Straight Outta Compton was noteworthy for its explicitly political stance, this album, and indeed the entire career of Public Enemy, is what really makes it clear that hip hop had matured into a fearsome engine of social criticism by 1988. And musically, lyrically, and vocally “fearsome” remains a good description. The density of the mix, heavy metallic drive of the musical and vocal flow, and the clarity of intelligent fury in the lyrics all work perfectly together. All of this is no accident- the group specifically set out to make a hip hop equivalent to Marvin Gaye’s What’s Going On, they were looking for a higher tempo that would better suit their live shows than their debut album, and producer Hank Shocklee developed a sample-dense “wall of noise” production style. In many ways, this album and N.W.A’s were, and remain, more rock than any rock of the era was. One other thing these two albums have in common is that they went platinum and rose in the charts with almost no radio airplay. Explicit lyrics? Or explicit challenge to America’s systemic racism?
If you’re curious about the sources I used to compile my list, you can check them out here:
I’m about a week late on putting this out due to various work/life reasons, but this past Monday was three months to Election Day. And what a difference the five weeks since our last update has made! The Rematch of the Century is no more. But, with Joe Biden withdrawing his name from consideration, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Democratic establishment and the grassroots swiftly and enthusiastically consolidating around her, a new tagline has been born: Prosecutor vs. Felon!
A big, in fact, unprecedented shakeup, but has it had an effect on the dynamics of the race? As we’ll see shortly, it definitely has!
Looking at the Real Clear Politics and 538 national polling averages, what immediately jumps out is that, for the first time since we started looking at this three months ago, Trump is no longer in the lead. RCP’s average now has a small lead for Harris. 538 (which weights things according to pollster track record and history of partisan lean, and adjusts for state polling) has an even clearer margin in Harris’s favor:
Polls of the swing states are showing the same effect. While for months Trump was at 7 for 7, RCP now shows Harris leading in 2 of 7, and 538 with its more robust methodology has her ahead in 3 of 3, with another one even. All of these leads are within the margin of error, but that’s kind of the point- they all are, even the Sunbelt states where Trump had enjoyed leads outside the margin of error in prior months. Here are the current 538 numbers by state:
538’s map would already have Harris with enough electoral votes to win, and even the more Republican-tilted RCP map shows her gaining ground:
Approval ratings are now a little trickier to gauge. We used to be able to compare Biden to previous Presidents at the same point in their first terms, but that no longer works. What we can do is compare Harris’s approval rating to Trump’s, and when we do so we can see that Harris’s net approval rating has surged since Biden’s withdrawal, and is now pretty much a wash with Trump’s (these averages are from 538):
Moving on, Democrats retain their lead in the Generic Congressional ballot:
Even more hopefully for Democrats, through the end of July they continue to outperform in special elections over the past year+, running an average of 6% ahead of the partisan lean of the races in question (per a spreadsheet compiled by Nathaniel Rakich of 538):
Our previous hypothesis about Biden’s percentage in Democratic primaries being ahead of Trump’s in Republican primaries, was that Trump had more wavering partisan supporters to bring home than Biden:
Finally, in line with many of the indicators above, Presidential betting markets now show Harris ahead of Trump:
So what does all this add up to?
Harris is clearly outperforming Trump at this point, having taken the lead in several key indicators and drawn even in others. Crucially, the 538 average shows Kennedy’s numbers cut in half at 5.1%, and undecided down from 8% a month ago to 5.8%. I’d speculated before that the nearly 20% sitting on the sidelines between Kennedy and undecided indicated that there was a significant block of voters who were saying they didn’t like their choices, but would eventually sort out for Biden or Trump. Currently, they appear to be sorting toward the Democrats.
This is not to say Harris will win, but one could certainly look at these numbers and conclude she very well might. One would have been hard pressed to make that case for Biden in the last three months based on data alone. We’ll check in again in September, but for the moment the campaign’s momentum is clearly toward Harris:
Chris LaMay-West 