As of yesterday, we were officially one year out to the 2020 election. You may have been following my series on the Democratic candidates, if not you can find the latest edition here. And a few months back I did a first look at Trump’s chances for re-election. At that time, I concluded that, while he can quite possible win and we have to act with all due seriousness, the paralyzing fear that it’s already over and done for is- BALDERDASH!
I also said we’d revisit the issue in November, with one year left to go. So, here we are. How do things look now?
One quick way to get a ballpark on it is to look at the President’s popularity numbers. They currently aren’t great:
In fact, they’ve never even been what might be termed “good”. When you compare his position to other post-war Presidents at this same point in their first term, this quickly becomes apparent:
Obama and Clinton were widely thought to be in potential trouble at this point in their first terms. Trump is below either of their positions. He’s actually below every post-war President at this point in their first term except Carter. And you may recall how the 1980 election went for Carter.
Another way to think about it is to look at polling versus potential opponents, now that the probable Democratic field is clearer. The three leading contenders all have a more than five-point lead at this time. Even the Mayor of South Bend Indiana has a lead, for Pete’s Sake:
It’s worth noting that at this same point, Clinton’s lead was 3.2%, not far off at all from where it actually ended up being. Another quick note on percentages. President Trump’s popularity rating is currently 5% below the level he “won” with in 2016. If you subtract 5% from his state-by-state 2016 margins, this is the electoral map you get (with Georgia a fraction of a percent away from flipping too):
Do not get me wrong. I’m not saying at all it’s a sure thing. A friend of mine posted this yesterday, and I could not agree more with both sides of what she’s saying:
“Trump can win–I will never again doubt that. And there are a ton of unknowns and things outside our control. But I also have to believe that if we step up, if we reach out and talk to our neighbors and listen to our fellow citizens, if enough of us demand a government based on our fundamental values–decency, honesty, fairness, equity, accountability–we can achieve it”
Looking at things a year out, there is every sign that we can do this. So let’s get going!