As of today, the General Election is 5 months out! If you’re a tl/dr kind of person, I’ll give you the headline: all the indicators today are about where they were a month ago, and it’s not great news for Biden. The main caveat to that is also the same as it was a month ago, but we’ll get more into that below.

Looking at the national polls, both the Real Clear Politics average (a straightforward averaging of various recent polls), and the 538 average (which weights things according to pollster track record and history of partisan lean, and adjusts for state polling) are both showing Trump leads, albeit within the standard 3% margin of error:

Polls of the swing states are showing a similar picture. Both RCP and 538 have Trump leading in 7 of 7. The glimmer of good news for Biden here is that the three Midwestern states are within the margin of error, and he’s narrowed the amount he’s trailing in two of them (Michigan and Wisconsin). Here are the current 538 numbers by state:

On the electoral college front, as per the swing state results, the current map hasn’t changed from a month ago, and has Trump well ahead:

Another instructive indicator is Presidential Approval ratings. Here Biden remains underwater by almost 19 points (this average is from 538):

And, as was true last month, he remains lower in net approval than the four most recent Presidents who lost after one term (Ford, Carter, H.W. Bush, and Trump):

So is it all doom and gloom? Democrats do remain ahead in the Generic Congressional ballot, although very narrowly:

And it remains true that Democrats have consistently outperformed in special elections over the past year, running an average of 5% ahead of the partisan lean of the races in question (per a spreadsheet compiled by Nathaniel Rakich of 538):

The other sign of some trouble for Trump is that Biden’s percentage in Democratic primaries is well ahead in total of Trump’s in Republican primaries, indicating that Trump may have more wavering partisan supporters to bring home than Biden:

The last area we can look at is the Presidential betting markets. Bettors are currently voting with their dollars, and their dollars think Trump is more likely to win:

So where does this leave us?

Go back up and take a look at the 538 national average again for a second. It shows two things that are, on the face of it, rather implausible: Kennedy getting almost 10%, and an implied 10% undecided. In 2016 voters disliked both candidates by double digits, and the total third party vote for all candidates was only about 5%. Add to that the fact that polls at this point before an election always vastly overinflate how many people support third parties, and it’s not unreasonable to expect that half or more of those avowed Kennedy voters are going back to one of the two main candidates.

As for the 10% who say they’re undecided, I’m equally suspicious. Both main candidates are very well known quantities at this point. My strong suspicion is that a lot of these undecideds are folks who aren’t thrilled about the choice, but in their heart of hearts do know what side of the fence they’re going to land on. They just aren’t quite at peace with it yet.

Given that national (and several of the swing state) polls are within a polling margin of error, until this almost 20 percent of the electorate sorts itself out further we really won’t know which way the wind is blowing. Especially since we have every reason to suspect things may come to tiny margins in specific states. In 2106 if 39,000 voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin changed their minds, I would be writing about who will succeed Hillary Clinton now. And in 2020, if 21,000 voters in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin had gone another way, we’d currently be seeing how serious Trump is about saying he’s allowed a third term.

Maybe our July check-in will be a little more substantive, since it will include reaction to Trump’s felony convictions last week and (if he doesn’t weasel out) the first debate. We probably won’t be on really firm ground until both conventions have concluded though. Until then, these are the factors as they’re currently aligned:

See you in July for another reading!

I mean, given, the century is only about 1/4 done. It’s our biggest rematch so far though! Also, apologies for not picking this up again since early primary season. There have been health issues, but now that the General Election is only 6 months out, I’ve decided it’s time to start getting more regular with it.

Six months out is a long time politically, especially given some factors I’ll mention later, but it’s also not an infinite amount of time, and there are multiple indicators we can look at to see what the current outlook is. The first would be national polls, and on this both the Real Clear Politics average, which is kind of a straightforward averaging of various recent polls, and the 538 average, which weights things according to pollster track record and history of partisan lean, are telling the same story:

It should be noted that this result is well within a standard 3% or so margin of error, so it’s hardly a decisive reading. What do polls of the swing states most likely to decide the election tell us? Here again RCP and 538 tell the same story, showing Trump leading in 7 of 7. Here are the current 538 numbers by state:

Again, proper caution regarding three of these results being within a standard margin of error. On the electoral college front, as you might suspect from the swing state results, the current map has Trump comfortably ahead:

Another indicator we might look at is Presidential Approval ratings. On this front too there’s plenty of evidence of trouble for Biden. He’s currently more than 17 points underwater (this average is from 538):

Crucially, he’s also lower in net approval than the four most recent Presidents defeated after their first term (Ford, Carter, H.W. Bush, and Trump):

Not all indicators are pointing in this direction though. The Generic Congressional ballot shows a preference for the Democrats, albeit a rather narrow one:

And Democrats have also consistently outperformed in special elections year to date, running an average of 5% ahead of the partisan lean of the races in question (per a spreadsheet compiled by Nathaniel Rakich of 538):

Both of these factors indicate that it’s actually a pro-Democratic electorate out there, and there’s also another thing to consider- Biden’s percentage in Democratic primaries is well ahead, in total of Trump’s in Republican primaries:

This suggests, other factors being equal, that Trump still has a lot more of the faithful to bring home than Biden does. And given that the 2106 election came down to 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and the 2020 election came down to 42,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, even a small marginal difference in enthusiasm of core voters could be decisive.

There’s one last area we can look at, which is what the Presidential betting markets are currently showing. Kind of a wonky indicator, but it is data of another sort, and crucially, a forecast people are laying real dollars on the table for. Here it’s a narrow Trump advantage at the moment:

So what do I think?

There are some good reasons to be cautious about the whole data picture at the moment. National polls are showing Kennedy with up to 10%, and state polls are showing up to 20% undecided. Frankly, these aren’t credible results, in the sense that they aren’t voters saying they have no idea what they are doing, or definitely voting against Biden and Trump. They’re voters who do have a leaning, but haven’t yet made peace with where they’re eventually going to end up. In other words, these votes are going somewhere, we just don’t know where yet.

There’s also how far out we are. To give one example of a news item that we know is coming, Trump could be a convicted felon by the time I do another update. That won’t shake the faithful, but it may certainly move some voters at the margins. And in general there are the conventions, the Republican VP pick, the effect of debates if they end up happening, and who knows how many unexpected news items between now and then.

There’s no question that if the election were held today, Trump would be a better than even favorite to win. But it’s not being held today, and for all the reasons cited above, these numbers are going to be a lot more meaningful at three, two or one month out than they are now.

So, for now what we have is the factors as they’re currently aligned, which will give us a good basis for spotting changes over time:

That’s where we are for now, and I’ll aim to do another update circa June 5th, at which point we’ll be five months out. See you then!