As of today, the General Election is 5 months out! If you’re a tl/dr kind of person, I’ll give you the headline: all the indicators today are about where they were a month ago, and it’s not great news for Biden. The main caveat to that is also the same as it was a month ago, but we’ll get more into that below.

Looking at the national polls, both the Real Clear Politics average (a straightforward averaging of various recent polls), and the 538 average (which weights things according to pollster track record and history of partisan lean, and adjusts for state polling) are both showing Trump leads, albeit within the standard 3% margin of error:

Polls of the swing states are showing a similar picture. Both RCP and 538 have Trump leading in 7 of 7. The glimmer of good news for Biden here is that the three Midwestern states are within the margin of error, and he’s narrowed the amount he’s trailing in two of them (Michigan and Wisconsin). Here are the current 538 numbers by state:

On the electoral college front, as per the swing state results, the current map hasn’t changed from a month ago, and has Trump well ahead:

Another instructive indicator is Presidential Approval ratings. Here Biden remains underwater by almost 19 points (this average is from 538):

And, as was true last month, he remains lower in net approval than the four most recent Presidents who lost after one term (Ford, Carter, H.W. Bush, and Trump):

So is it all doom and gloom? Democrats do remain ahead in the Generic Congressional ballot, although very narrowly:

And it remains true that Democrats have consistently outperformed in special elections over the past year, running an average of 5% ahead of the partisan lean of the races in question (per a spreadsheet compiled by Nathaniel Rakich of 538):

The other sign of some trouble for Trump is that Biden’s percentage in Democratic primaries is well ahead in total of Trump’s in Republican primaries, indicating that Trump may have more wavering partisan supporters to bring home than Biden:

The last area we can look at is the Presidential betting markets. Bettors are currently voting with their dollars, and their dollars think Trump is more likely to win:

So where does this leave us?

Go back up and take a look at the 538 national average again for a second. It shows two things that are, on the face of it, rather implausible: Kennedy getting almost 10%, and an implied 10% undecided. In 2016 voters disliked both candidates by double digits, and the total third party vote for all candidates was only about 5%. Add to that the fact that polls at this point before an election always vastly overinflate how many people support third parties, and it’s not unreasonable to expect that half or more of those avowed Kennedy voters are going back to one of the two main candidates.

As for the 10% who say they’re undecided, I’m equally suspicious. Both main candidates are very well known quantities at this point. My strong suspicion is that a lot of these undecideds are folks who aren’t thrilled about the choice, but in their heart of hearts do know what side of the fence they’re going to land on. They just aren’t quite at peace with it yet.

Given that national (and several of the swing state) polls are within a polling margin of error, until this almost 20 percent of the electorate sorts itself out further we really won’t know which way the wind is blowing. Especially since we have every reason to suspect things may come to tiny margins in specific states. In 2106 if 39,000 voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin changed their minds, I would be writing about who will succeed Hillary Clinton now. And in 2020, if 21,000 voters in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin had gone another way, we’d currently be seeing how serious Trump is about saying he’s allowed a third term.

Maybe our July check-in will be a little more substantive, since it will include reaction to Trump’s felony convictions last week and (if he doesn’t weasel out) the first debate. We probably won’t be on really firm ground until both conventions have concluded though. Until then, these are the factors as they’re currently aligned:

See you in July for another reading!