I mean, given, the century is only about 1/4 done. It’s our biggest rematch so far though! Also, apologies for not picking this up again since early primary season. There have been health issues, but now that the General Election is only 6 months out, I’ve decided it’s time to start getting more regular with it.

Six months out is a long time politically, especially given some factors I’ll mention later, but it’s also not an infinite amount of time, and there are multiple indicators we can look at to see what the current outlook is. The first would be national polls, and on this both the Real Clear Politics average, which is kind of a straightforward averaging of various recent polls, and the 538 average, which weights things according to pollster track record and history of partisan lean, are telling the same story:

It should be noted that this result is well within a standard 3% or so margin of error, so it’s hardly a decisive reading. What do polls of the swing states most likely to decide the election tell us? Here again RCP and 538 tell the same story, showing Trump leading in 7 of 7. Here are the current 538 numbers by state:

Again, proper caution regarding three of these results being within a standard margin of error. On the electoral college front, as you might suspect from the swing state results, the current map has Trump comfortably ahead:

Another indicator we might look at is Presidential Approval ratings. On this front too there’s plenty of evidence of trouble for Biden. He’s currently more than 17 points underwater (this average is from 538):

Crucially, he’s also lower in net approval than the four most recent Presidents defeated after their first term (Ford, Carter, H.W. Bush, and Trump):

Not all indicators are pointing in this direction though. The Generic Congressional ballot shows a preference for the Democrats, albeit a rather narrow one:

And Democrats have also consistently outperformed in special elections year to date, running an average of 5% ahead of the partisan lean of the races in question (per a spreadsheet compiled by Nathaniel Rakich of 538):

Both of these factors indicate that it’s actually a pro-Democratic electorate out there, and there’s also another thing to consider- Biden’s percentage in Democratic primaries is well ahead, in total of Trump’s in Republican primaries:

This suggests, other factors being equal, that Trump still has a lot more of the faithful to bring home than Biden does. And given that the 2106 election came down to 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and the 2020 election came down to 42,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, even a small marginal difference in enthusiasm of core voters could be decisive.

There’s one last area we can look at, which is what the Presidential betting markets are currently showing. Kind of a wonky indicator, but it is data of another sort, and crucially, a forecast people are laying real dollars on the table for. Here it’s a narrow Trump advantage at the moment:

So what do I think?

There are some good reasons to be cautious about the whole data picture at the moment. National polls are showing Kennedy with up to 10%, and state polls are showing up to 20% undecided. Frankly, these aren’t credible results, in the sense that they aren’t voters saying they have no idea what they are doing, or definitely voting against Biden and Trump. They’re voters who do have a leaning, but haven’t yet made peace with where they’re eventually going to end up. In other words, these votes are going somewhere, we just don’t know where yet.

There’s also how far out we are. To give one example of a news item that we know is coming, Trump could be a convicted felon by the time I do another update. That won’t shake the faithful, but it may certainly move some voters at the margins. And in general there are the conventions, the Republican VP pick, the effect of debates if they end up happening, and who knows how many unexpected news items between now and then.

There’s no question that if the election were held today, Trump would be a better than even favorite to win. But it’s not being held today, and for all the reasons cited above, these numbers are going to be a lot more meaningful at three, two or one month out than they are now.

So, for now what we have is the factors as they’re currently aligned, which will give us a good basis for spotting changes over time:

That’s where we are for now, and I’ll aim to do another update circa June 5th, at which point we’ll be five months out. See you then!